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Nandram Discusses Bayesian Statistics at DLSU

De La Salle University once again exposed its mathematics and statistics department to a wider world today at the Ariston Estrada lecture room, with a lecture by Dr. Balgobin Nandram, Professor of Statistics at the Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts.

Undergraduates taking up Mathematics and Statistics, along with graduates and faculty, attended his workshop on Bayesian Statistics and Small Area Estimation. After a short introduction by faculty member Shirley Ocampo, Dr. Nandram proceeded to his lecture, showing slides in his own handwriting, scanned fresh off a notebook. “It is an honor,” Ocampo said. “This visit from Dr. Nandram is timely,” as it coincides with the university offering MS Statistical Science for the first time, and the opening of the new Statistics Laboratory.

He introduced the basics of Bayesian Statistics, then followed with four simple examples, starting with a Normal Mean Data Model, then a Beta-Binary, an example on Non-response and Poisson-Gamma. His example on Non-response made use of data from his class back in Worcester, with the survey question “Are you from Masachusetts?” Out of his 103 students, he had 80 responses, and 60 of them said ‘yes’. He then continued to illustrate the use of Bayesian statistics in taking consideration the absence of the 23 other responses. He compared the Pattern Mixture Model with the Selection Model.

His workshop ended with the discussion on the Hierarchical Model, and will continue to expound further on this with the Gibbs Sampler during the second part of the workshop, at the Ariston Estrada Lecture Hall, room L126, this coming Friday, June 15, 2012, 2:30pm, exactly on the closing of De La Salle University’s Centennial Celebration.

The notes from his lecture can be requested from the De La Salle Mathematics Department, at room J201. Dr. Nandram will also discuss his most recent paper on June 22, 2012.

To know more about the esteemed Dr. Balgobin Nandram, visit his page at Worchester Polytechnic Institute.

L’Hôpital’s Rule

Calculus is a behavioral science. Granted, it doesn’t deal with the behaviors of humans. But it does make an enormous fuss about behaviors of functions. Functions do have their own behaviors and characteristics.

The Swiss mathematician Johann Bernoulli (I.) ...

Johann Bernoulli

One of the basic things we learn in calculus is the limiting process. Basically, it tells us what value the function is going nearest to, when your x is going towards a certain value. Usually, you get a numerical value for a limit, and sometimes you get an infinity, which just simply means your function is growing too big or too small, all too fast for your limits to know where your function’s going.

This is a good example on why you can’t always say that math is an exact science: some things are just too big, too small or too undefined to understand or compute for. And math isn’t just about computations, it’s about behavior.

But what if your limit is a 0/0 or an ∞/∞ ? What would that mean?

To find out, let’s take a page out of our good French Geometrician friend from the 1700’s Guillame de l’Hôpital’s book Analyse des Infiniment Petits pour l’Intelligence des Lignes Courbes. (Analyses of Curves Too Infinitely Small to Understand.) In this paper he published in 1696, he included a good number of lessons he learned from his Swiss teacher Johann Bernoulli (the first, not the second or the third) who, like a lot of his Bernoulli family members, was a well known genius in mathematics. Johann, specifically, was best when it came to discovering things about infinitesimal calculus.
So what did they tell us?

Definition: Indeterminate Form.

Let f(x) and g(x) be functions of x.

If  or ∞ and  , then  is of the indeterminate form 0/0 or ∞/∞.

Theorem: L’Hôpital’s Rule.

If  is of the indeterminate forms 0/0 or ∞/∞, then

So if you ever do encounter those two forms 0/0 or ∞/∞, then you know what to do. Just differentiate both the numerator and the denominator, and use the limiting process again. The rule also applies if we replace x→a with x→a+,x→a-,x→+∞ and x→-∞

Example 1.

If we evaluate the limit by plugging in the value x=2 in the equation, then we’d have:

Now, we see that evaluating the limit like any usual limit would give us an indeterminate form 0/0. We use L’Hôpital’s Rule. Let’s differentiate both the numerator and the denominator.

And then we evaluate just like usual.

And now that we have arrived at a known value for the limit, we have an answer.
Here are a couple more examples.

Example 2.

Example 3.

We see that after applying L’Hôpital’s Rule, we get the indeterminate form 0/0 again. It’s just a simple matter of repeating the process, or moving around the trigonometric identities to get an answer.

Don’t give up. Try using the trigonometric identities.

But there are more indeterminate forms.  Getting the answers is simply moving around the function to get an indeterminate form of 0/0 or ∞/∞ before you apply L’Hôpital’s Rule.

Related articles


Functions

There’s always a billion and one ways to think about something. So here’s a fresh perspective on something basic: a function.

A function, according to any English dictionary, but really this definition is just off of the top of my mind right now, is basically what a thing does. Our very trusty friend, Merriam Webster, explains it as such:

func•tion n. \ˈfəŋ(k)-shən\2: the action for which a person or thing is specially fitted or used or for which a thing exists : purpose

In math, it’s something, sorta, kinda like that, but not really.

A function is an equation that has an entire life on its own. Okay, so right now, I’m confusing you more. What I’m trying to say is basically, a function is an equation. It doesn’t matter what letter you use or how many variables you have, but when you put in or assign a value to one of your variables, then the others would have a value too. Usually.

Rene Déscartes (read it like, Day-Cart), a philosopher (“I think, therefore I am”) and mathematician devised what is known as a Cartesian Coordinate Plane. By assigning a value for an x (which usually shows horizontal movement or width, left to right) you get a corresponding value for a y (showing height, or vertical movement, down to up). And these values you have are coordinates, used to know where you put the points in a graph. Connecting these points, you get the graph of your equation. We know what an x is, but in functions, the y is explicitly represented as f(x) which means “function of x”. It means, that for every value of x, you have a certain value of y, which is its function.

The function of x is basically “what x does”. Told you it was sorta, kinda, a bit like the dictionary explanation but sorta not really like it.

If your teacher ever told you something about a vertical line test, then they’re partly right, and also partly wrong.

The vertical line test proves if something is a function. Of x. Just because it doesn’t pass for the vertical line test, it’s not a function anymore. It still is. But it’s a function of y. (If it passes the horizontal line test.) The vertical line test shows that for every value of x, you only have one value for f(x). Same goes for a horizontal line test. For every value of y, there is a one (and only one) corresponding value for f(y).

But for the sake of uniformity, everyone just says that the values of x is in your domain, and f(x) is your co-domain.

And as with all things mathematical, the best way to learn is by example.

Example: f(x) = 3x+5

x f(x) = 3x +5
-3 -4
-2 -1
-1 2
0 5
1 8
2 11
3 14
4 17

As you can see, for every value of x, there’s only one value for y or f(x). Yup, yup. In functions, we just usually say that y is f(x). y=3x+5 is called “explicit”, because we really do show that y is the function. If we wrote that as 3x-y+5=0, then that’s called “implicit”, because we just imply and not exactly state that y is the function of x. In a sense, it can be written as f(x,y) = 3x-y+5. Now, it’s a function of both x and y. X is not the function of Y, Y is not the function of X. The entire thing is a function of both of them.

What is a domain? It’s not the name of a website. Well it is, but not in math. A domain is the set of all the values of x, or the values of your independent variable.

Oh, and by the way, x and y are called variables, because they vary. They change. It can take any value. The value of your x, however, is independent (in this case, and the case of most functions of x). But since y is implicitly the function of x, then that means your y only has a value if x has a value. What value y takes is dependent on the value of x. X basically dictates whatever y is.

And your co-domain or range is the set of the values of y.

Get it?

If for every value of x in the domain, there is exactly one corresponding value of y in the co-domain, then the function is said to have a one-to-one relationship. The y values can have a lot of corresponding x’s. If for every x, there are a lot of corresponding y’s, then it is not a function.

In set theory, for the sets X and Y, and the function f: X–>Y, there are three correspondence relationships.

Surjective means that for every Y, there exists a corresponding X. Injective means that for every X, there is a corresponding value in Y. If there is a corresponding value for everything, which means it is both Surjective and Injective, we call the function to be Bijective.

Anyway, enough of this. I hope you have been confused.

There is an approach to teaching mathematics which uses less examples and applications. Sometimes, one of the best ways to learn math is to know the theorems by heart, and have them down packed upside down and inside out. Granted, it’s not the easier route to take, but learning that way is the way you practice your mind to think in loops and circles and find new ways and ideas and concepts, like theorems and corollaries, that may connect to each other.

This wouldn’t be a nice way to learn things if you’re vying to become an engineer or an economist. But it is, if you want to learn pure mathematics or be a philosopher.

Angry Tweets

Plenty of people now claim that sarcasm is a language which they fluently speak. On social networking sites and perhaps on any informal online bio-data where “language” is part of the queries, it is no longer surprising to find people who set “Sarcasm” as their mother tongue.

Anyone who says they are fluent with sarcasm not only uses it, but knows how to distinguish it and even appreciate it at times.

The recent entry Sir Stewart wrote for So What’s News? on WordPress managed to deface so many hypocrites who thought they can handle the tongue of the trade.

After the controversial Anti-Planking Act of 2011, proposed by Winnie Castello, got such a huge online buzz, even trending on Twitter in the Philippines and Worldwide (ah, such great shame was bestowed upon the country that day), So What’s News, a blog of societal satire, published an article to mock the waste of time the congress was troubling about. In a piece of fake news, he stated that Castello, the same congressman, passed another bill that was more stupid than the first. It was called the “Anti-Angry Birds Bill.

Shortly after it was published on his blog, the “news” spread like wildfire on social networking sites, bringing about a huge surge of aggravated readers, angrily commenting about how stupid the government is, and basically CAPSLOCKING the congress to death. And although it could sometimes be funny to see a person or two not get the joke, be fooled by a piece of satire, it easily grew annoying as so many had apparently believed the hoax, even to the point of once again having it trend on Twitter.

And although I believe that Stewart was delightfully amused at the publicity he’s gotten for his humble blog—and undoubtedly, I am happy for him too—I am utterly disgusted by how gullible Filipinos are nowadays.

First of all, it really does say there that all posts on the blog were satirical pieces. Next to that, there was this fake picture of protesters with placards displaying images of Angry Birds, and another of the congress with the character illustration of the game flashed on their screen. Besides, an Anti-Angry Birds Bill? Who would even believe that?

Next to that, a lot of the people who are so angry and so concerned about how the congress was not focusing on the more important issues were obviously the ones who didn’t even bother to read the blog. They just saw someone else’s tweet or status update, and automatically chimed in with the choir of angry townsmen, complete with virtual pitchforks and torches.

I guess you can say this comes from a culture of blatant overuse of copy-pasting sources from Wikipedia, and the preference of online source materials over actual books and periodicals. Now people are gullible enough to believe in blogs. That, or they’ve just grown too lazy or stupid to analyze if the source material is even authentic. I’m hoping none of them are vying to become future journalists, historians, researchers, scientists and textbook writers.

It is truly depressing to know that an entire generation depends on social networking to be socially aware.

Nobody reads the real news anymore. Everyone just plainly doesn’t care. We’ve all grown too apathetic to the real happenings in society, and too absorbed in how Josh dated Stacy after she broke up with Mark for cheating on her with Tina. Or something like that.

They don’t care about society anymore. But once they’ve seen something like “Anti-Angry Birds Bill” trending on Twitter, they’d all be fired up about how there are so many more problems in society that have to be fixed. They speak like they know plenty.

Other than the apparent fact that societal apathy has numbed out and dumbed down the general population, the other thing that got me miffed was how, after finding out that the post was a joke, they often got angry or said that “political satire isn’t nice.” Or that news shouldn’t be faked. Or that it was misleading.

The only people who don’t appreciate political satire and societal jokes in general are the ones who were fooled by it, or those who don’t understand it. In fact, some of the best pieces in literature that contributed and ultimately inspired movements towards societal change were political satire. Jonathan Swift’s classic novel Gullver’s Travels compared politics and the process for bequeathing of authority in governments with a game where people had to jump over a stick to become the next leader. My personal favorite, George Orwell’s Animal Farm compared politics in totalitarian governments with animals, putting play on the famous saying “man is a political animal.”

Also, dear Philippines, let’s not forget. During the time of Marcos’ Martial Law, when freedom of speech was suspended, the people had to turn to political satire to express their wishes to return to democracy. Without political satire, we might all be polishing Imelda’s shoes and beading her terno’s.

Tons of websites dedicated to fake news are up online. And we all love to laugh about their improbable reports. The Onion, for one, is a general favorite.

So What’s News?’s posts were tasteful and hilarious. “Anti-Planking? Castello’s such a joke, haha, what’s he going to ban next? Oh, I know! Angry birds!” It wasn’t offensive–well, it was meant to slightly offend, but only up to an extent–it was clean, to the point, and came across as news we’d so love to hate.

It was a joke. And a pretty good one at that. Anyone who didn’t get that just didn’t know how to read.

The Magical Repository of Math Reference Texts, and then some.

As the World Folds Over

Finals today! For MATH115, ie. calculus; the kind of calculus that not even the engineering students have.

Multiple integrals, multivariable differentials, polar graphs, improper integrals, sequences and series, tests for convergence–what?

I know for plenty of you, the school year just started. And for a lot of those in the Philippines, midterms week or first quarter just ended. However, for us university kids from trimestral systems, we’re already having finals! Yay speedy education cramming five months worth of math into three! We understood nothing!

I’m really afraid that I will be failing my major classes this term. All my math classes seem to be in danger. MATH115, for one. I thought I was passing; but then the last two quizzes were a flop. And For the final few weeks, I couldn’t keep awake in class at all due to illness (heeeere we go again.) Same goes for INTOSET, except for that, I haven’t passed even one quiz. Not a single one. It’s a nightmare.

And much worse, being a statistics major, I haven’t even passed a quiz in STATPAC (Statistical Packages). It’s really difficult when you know /how/ to interpret the data, but you don’t know the syntax properly enough to get the codes right. The statistics lab–I used to love that place, but now it just gives me the chills. There were only two exams for this the entire term. And for every exam, there were about three or four pages each; I only answer one page and leave the rest blank. I couldn’t finish anything. So I get about fifteen to twenty per cent right. Even if I get my final paper in and perfect it, I’ll never pass that class. Never. I’m doomed.

Buuuut. That doesn’t keep me from trying. I’m still going to do that paper; still going to study for all these exams. (I have three, by the way!) I was never the giver-upper sort of kid. So I guess I’ll just have to keep trying!

And if I fail, who’s to say I didn’t do enough?